Yesterday, there was no shortage of market observers pointing out that the VIX closed at virtually the same level it did on August 16th and November 12th, which are associated with the last two market rallies. However, that may not be the only VIX-based condition for a market rally.
Let’s look at the 10-day moving average of the VIX, or VIX 10MA, to see how it behaved during the last two market bottoms. On both occasions, it was at least 3 standard deviations above its long term average, which is not the case today. For the VIX 10MA to get there, we need either a bigger spike than last time or a few more days of the VIX being at its current level. Both of these scenarios suggest that yesterday was not a market bottom.